McRibs and Bull Markets
How this saucy sandwich *might* predict bull markets. (You heard us.)
Hey witches! 🌙✨This week we’re serving up some mouthwateringly juicy financial goss (like we do, drumroll please) … We’re diving into the McRib and it’s ability to, seemingly, kick-off bull markets! (For real.) We’ve done some research, looked at the stats, and we’re going to try to demystify this delicious link between everyone’s favorite limited-time sandwich and the wild west-esque world of the DeFi, and TradFi, markets.
Since its debut in the culinary scene back in ’81, the McRib has cultivated a cult following, and let’s be real, it’s basically the Meryl Streep of limited-time fast food. Boneless barbecue pork ribs, onions, and pickles doing a little dance on your taste buds. Iconic. (If that’s your thing.) McDonald’s loves to play hard to get with this oblong masterpiece. They’ll yank it off the menu, leaving you wondering when you’ll get your next fix. But then, out of the blue, BAM! It’s back as a limited-time offering, sending us into a frenzy of sauce-slathered joy.
Now, why does Mickey D’s keep us on this emotional rollercoaster? Well, they’ve got their reasons, and let’s just say it’s not all about the sauce. Sure, it’s partly a genius marketing move — keeping us craving that sweet, tangy goodness until they decide to bless us with its return. But it’s also about the price of pork. When pork prices are low, McDonald’s sees its chance to strike, giving us the McRib fix we didn’t know we needed. McDonald’s needs a boatload of pork to satisfy the masses clamoring for that saucy goodness. That means they’re buying up pork like it’s going out of style, which can drive up demand and, subsequently, prices in the pork market. You see, pork prices aren’t just randomly fluctuating like your ex’s commitment issues. They’re influenced by supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns, global trade policies — you name it. When McDonald’s announces the return of the McRib, it’s basically sending shockwaves through the pork market (due to the absolutely crazy volume of pork they need to bring the sandwich back into market).
So, dear Crypto Witches, how exactly does this relate to bull markets? It’s complicated.
THE DATA
Nasdaq introduced us to the concept of the “McRib Indicator” — a term we’re totally stealing btw. This indicator suggests that tracking the McRib’s appearances could give us a sneak peek into Bitcoin’s future moves. So how do McRib sightings factor into technical analysis? Analysts have found that Bitcoin tends to go on a bull run around the same time the McRib makes its grand return. Coincidence? Possibly. Or it’s the stars aligning and the crypto market going, “I’ll have what she’s having.”
Since 2016, McDonald’s has been playing this game where they bring back the McRib on the regular. In 4 out of 7 of those instances, Bitcoin’s price decides to shoot for the moon. The juiciest returns? They happened in 2017 and 2021, right when the bulls were running wild. (Yeehaw.) According to this analyst’s graph — yeah, we’ve got receipts — Bitcoin’s going off the charts, with gains of over 200% within just 90 days of the McRib’s comeback.
One analyst Nick Maggiullipoint, COO for Ritholtz Wealth Management pointed out that, in addition to Bitcoin’s ‘McRib gains’, the S&P 500 has seen a 0.04% higher average daily return when the McRib sandwich was available compared to when it wasn’t.
That being said, there have been 3 out of 7 instances on record that the McRib came out during Bitcoin bear markets and did nada, so we’ll leave the mental maneuvering on how you want to take these stats to you. There’s a buffet of factors — aside from the magical McRib, that drive the stock market, from GDP growth to interest rates to whatever Elon Musk is tweeting about today. An article from Decrypt suggests that community hype, fueled by memes like the McRib meme, may also influence market trends. It’s not just about charts and numbers; welcome to the era of meme-driven finance.
OUR TAKEAWAY?
While it’s tempting to believe in the McRib magic, let’s remember that correlation doesn’t always equal causation. Without robust statistical analysis and data demonstrating a consistent and significant correlation between the two variables, it would be speculative to conclude that McRib availability and bull markets are coordinated. Also, we know the stock market’s performance is influenced by a multitude of complex factors, including economic indicators, investor sentiment, geopolitical events, and corporate earnings, making it unlikely that the availability of any single fast-food item could serve as a reliable predictor of market movements.
The claim that the availability of McDonald’s McRib sandwich and bull markets are coordinated is more of an anecdotal observation rather than a scientifically proven correlation backed by concrete data. But, it IS a quirky way of gauging sentiment and predicting where Bitcoin might be headed next. Bring on the memes, baby.
✨ Disclaimer, witches: We drop financial fun, but remember, we’re not your investment gurus. We’re just here to sprinkle some savvy suggestions on your avocado toast. Always consult a real money expert before making any major moves, because, let’s be real, we’re just here to help get your financial knowledge as sharp as your winged eyeliner. ✨
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Shirin Bucknam is the founder of Crypto Witch Club and has been investing in crypto since 2017. Since then, she’s been featured in Time, Bustle, Inc., CoinDesk, and more, has written about Web3 for Marie Claire Magazine, and has spoken at NFT NYC. Shirin specializes in social media strategy and content marketing for Web3 brands.
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